Monday Mid-Morning Musings

Let's see...our federal government has gone into super-high gear for Terry Schiavo, one person out of I don't know how many that represented more of a publicity opportunity for them rather than a better outcome for her; now, it is up in arms about coal mining now that (sadly, of course) 14 miners have died in the last few months. COME ON, PEOPLE! While I certainly sympathize for the miners' families, where's the outcry and action on smoking? Guns? Other things that kill more than 14 people doing jobs that are KNOWN TO BE DANGEROUS? While I'm all for greater safety in mining (witness the number of deaths in Chinese mines which I must imagine are that much less safe than those in the US), I think there are other areas that should also generate action, hue, cry, and some decisions to fix the problems because they are killing more people and costing more in skyrocketing healthcare bills for the nation.

On a ligher note...

Kobe Bryant scores 81 points in an historic shooting/scoring frenzy in a game that, interestingly, was undecided into the fourth quarter despite his prodigious scoring talent (isn't the use of the word "scoring" with Kobe ironic? Huh? Huh?). Indeed, LA was behind by 17 POINTS in the third quarter. But Kobe's mates kept feeding him the ball. Unfortunately, though he does appear to be a huge scoring machine, LA won't win without other guys putting the rock in the net.

"Shares fall on outlook"

It appears that once a public company has reached a point of success, it also becomes "smart" enough to know when to play that success down. Over the last few days, both eBay and Apple performed pretty well earnings-wise, but both will likely be smacked down for projecting less than stellar results going forward.

This is a learned skill. Simply, the best way to beat estimates later is to talk them down now. Microsoft is probably the best at this in the tech world, consistently beating estimates in the quarter following chicken-littling them down in the current quarter. It's always the same - "Microsoft net increases 20%, but guidance was guarded to negative going foward". It's the mentality and practice of saying "We can't keep this up indefinitely" - and then doing it indefinitely.

Thus, perhaps the best buying opportunity for companies like these that are consistent strong performers is right AFTER they get pummeled for downplaying the next quarter. Of course, they COULD be telling the truth, but I suspect there's more gamesmanship there than anything.

New slogan for the Bahamas - You must be DYING to get here

I was fortunate enough to be able to read several of the new "Travel to the Bahamas" ads on the subway today...my car wasn't the overcrowded sardine can it usually is, and I could look around the train without fear of staring at someone for longer than the 4.2 seconds one is usually permitted. Apparently, Bahamas leaders are anxious to have New Yorkers dead rather than to visit their country. I figure that this has to be the case after reading some of the copy and viewing the accompanying pictures. There were four ads, but I only saw three of them (not counting the overhead advice to "trade 18 layers for 18 holes" and a nice picture of a guy, a starfish, and a beach doing their thing. The ads were attempting to be clever in suggesting ways that suffering New Yorkers could have an "instant vacation" by trying some things they'd do in the Bahamas on or in the subway. However, each was fraught with peril, death just waiting at each little venture. Here's what I saw:

1. Create a hammock out of empty subway seats - picture of stick figure lying across three seats. Not only is this impossible most of the time - the train is simply too crowded - but doing this would bring the vacationer an instant reaction of anger and likely admonishments to "Get the F--- off those seats, m------ f-------!!". At best, the traveler would come way with some grime on his clothes; at worst, broken bones.

2. Subway Snorkeling - another ad suggests that travelers move from car to car to view the "New York wildlife". Of course, we all know (per subway car instructions) that "...standing or moving between cars while the train is in motion is dangerous and prohibited." So basically, take this little action and risk being rat food after slipping between a few moving cars.

3. Fly-Casting...with your scarf - possibly the most stupid and flagrant ad was this one, which laughingly suggests that travelers attach their cell phones to their scarves with tape, put more tape on the cell phone, and then cast the carf-phone-fishing pole into the tracks and see what they can find. There's even a PICTURE of a nice stick figure casting his scarf onto the tracks in the face of what very much seems to be an oncoming train!! You figure out what their intentions are with this one.

All in all, I think I'll travel to Florida. There's no tax, it's closer, and not only do they not want to kill you, there are plenty of ambulances waiting to help in case you fall and can't get up.